However, after the advent of data analysis and data mining, this phenomenon has improved a lot. Uncertain things can be verified with existing data, and new requirements can be discovered from existing data, so that there is no need to make assumptions out of thin air. So now “user data speaks” is very popular, but it cannot rely solely on data, and there is no data to support it under any circumstances. New things still need to be explored.
Most of the innovations are based on such assumptions, because there is no existing thing to rely on for truly innovative things. From another perspective, innovation is a kind of trial and error, and it is not a risk. Over. Because in many cases there is a risk of trial and error, the result of the verification will not be known until the product is made, and the cost of making the product is there. So what assumptions do we make in the process of making products?
Demand hypothesis
First of all, is there a problem that needs to be solved urgently? Demand is a certain need or demand of people. The most detonating product is to meet people’s pain point needs, that is, it is indispensable in life or work, or can be improved, or may become popular in the future. It is also the concept of designing products for the future. When we are building a product, we have to assume that there is such a problem that needs to be solved urgently, and then analyze the various scenarios in which the problem exists, and the solutions in various scenarios. This is the process of demand analysis.
Demand hypothesis is the basis of making products, and demand management is also the first link in the product link. The focus is that the hypothetical demand can hit the real demand, that is to say, what is pursued is that the result after verification is what was assumed at the beginning. Such assumptions are the most successful. When making demand assumptions, avoid whimsical and unrealistic fantasies. Although many people say that the innovations are made out of blindness, I don’t think so. This assumption is still based on the fundamentals. For example, if a new technology appears, you can analyze how this new technology can be realized. What kind of functions, what kind of problems these functions may be able to solve, and then imagine whether this new technology can be used to make a new product. Although you don’t have to consider the implementation factors when you think about it, when you want to consider it as a requirement, you need to consider its implementation.
Product hypothesis
Once you have a demand hypothesis, you can assume whether there is a certain solution? And this solution happens to be able to achieve the previous demand assumptions, which is also the implementation problem mentioned at the end of the previous paragraph. But the above is technical realization, and here is the product realization. The realization of the product involves a wider range, and the product is user-oriented, and the considerations on the user side are more complicated than those on the technical side.
The hypothesis of the solution should be more rigorous. When the solution is reached, it should be based on the demand hypothesis, based on the facts and basis to analyze, and draw a conclusion, and finally give a suggestion plan, if a few suggestions can be drawn, finally pay back You have to choose the best plan from it. The key here is the process of analysis. At this time, there may not be any basic data, so you have to work together and brainstorm several times, and it is best to find a practical solution.
User assumptions
When there is a demand and a solution, there must be target users. A product without a target user is useless, so it must be assumed that there is such a user group, and when the product is realized, these users will come back to use or buy your product. There are two main aspects to the hypothesis of target users. The first is whether such a target user exists, which we have already assumed; the second is that such a target user group is not large, which determines how many users will come in the future. Buy your product. The size of the user group can only be estimated. If the estimated results are pessimistic, you need to consider whether such a product is worth doing.
Channel and pricing assumptions
Is there a channel for products to users? Is there a price acceptable to all parties? If it’s not a chargeable product, there is no pricing problem. Otherwise, you need to consider it. Although pricing is a matter of knowledge, it is relatively simple. The most important thing is the marketing channel of the product. The products that no one knows are still useless. If you want people to know, you have to consider marketing channels. In fact, at this time, it is more not a hypothesis, but a solution based on the previous hypotheses. Channels and markets have to be considered from the beginning. This hypothesis is basically to start deciding whether to make this product.
Market hypothesis
Similar to the above, the market is also an issue that has to be considered. Is it a new, subdivided or old market? Will trigger a series of different treatments. Another controversial point is whether to enter a red ocean market or a blue ocean market, and to enter each corresponding market, you must make corresponding preparations.
Competitive advantage hypothesis
Compared with others, why can we do better? Where do brand-new products come from competitors? The answer is yes. The current environment for the development of Internet products is that good products are swarming with people, like Weibo. But you still can’t compete with other big-name companies. A very realistic question is when your product is launched, if Tencent intervenes in the competition, what should you do? Therefore, the competitive advantage hypothesis at this time is more about analyzing the core combat effectiveness of the team, the core logic in product design ideas, and considering the setting of patents and so on.
These product assumptions are very important. It can be said to be an important result of the product’s preliminary research and feasibility analysis. It is unwise to start product development without these conclusions. This is why venture capital requires all entrepreneurial teams to write The reason for publishing the business plan is to think clearly about these issues.
