1. What is the product opportunity judgment? Why make product opportunity judgments?

Opportunity judgment is to say whether the product you want to provide can meet your user demands and business interests requirements, and this satisfaction can provide certainty in the future.

As a product, you need to have some basic skills, such as observing users’ emotions, subconscious empathy, and the hands-on ability to draw user experience maps. Judging product opportunities is to examine products from a macro perspective from a top-down perspective, and to research and plan products from the company’s strategic level.

Mastering the ability to identify opportunities will give you a pair of sharp eyes that will make you stand out.

2. How to judge product opportunities?

Opportunity judgment starts with a point that satisfies the user. This point can be the user’s pain point, refreshing point or itching point.

For example, eating to satisfy people’s food and clothing problems is a pain point; seeing a favorite dish and gorging on it is a refreshing point; going to a high-style restaurant to eat, taking a photo and posting it on the Moments to show off, this is an itching point. The same is for eating, and you can start from different points to meet the needs of users.

Opportunity judgment also requires understanding users and understanding what your user profile looks like. User portraits can be analyzed from multiple dimensions, such as your user’s gender, age, culture, economic status, educational level, etc., to grasp the important user attributes of the portrait for research. Here is a reference based on the portraits provided by two groups of industry leaders:

(1) User portraits of Daming, Benben and Xiaoxian (from Goddess Liang)

Daming is a user who is very clear about his needs, like a boy, for example, we go to the street to buy things, we buy something when we like it, and then leave after buying it; while Benben is a user who does not know his own needs, like a girl, for example, when we go shopping, It is said that I want to buy a skirt, and I bought a hat to the end of the stroll; Xiaoxian is a user who has no demand, like an old man, such as going to the park, the community, and wandering around.

(2) Portrait of sheep eating grass

Here we compare the grass to our product. The first user is the first sheep that comes to eat grass on the grass. If the grass dies after the sheep is eaten, is it because the sheep is unlucky and find another one? What about the sheep?

The answer is NO! What we have to do is to improve our grass; if the sheep are not dead, but they are not happy, can other sheep come in to eat grass?

The answer is still NO! What we have to do is to improve our grass; if the sheep are very happy to eat and bleat, then we can introduce other sheep to eat grass at this time.

There are too many sheep on the grassland, which is not easy to manage. At this time, we need to divide the sheep into groups, and the head sheep of each group will manage the grouped sheep. We only need to be responsible for managing the head sheep, because our resources are limited. .

Finally, it is possible that we will also introduce wolves and charge the incoming wolves. The wolves here are like B-end users.

The two sets of portraits can overlap, depending on which type of users the product is aimed at. For example, JD.com’s product catalog is very clear, and Baidu’s search is precisely aimed at Damingyang users; Ali attracts tens of millions of female users every night. Shopping above is aimed at stupid sheep users; Tencent’s news, games and many other products are aimed at Xiaoxianyang users.

In addition to user portraits, opportunity judgment also requires understanding user scenarios.

Times are developing and society is progressing. After WeChat opens the scan function, everything is interconnected, and a QR code in any place can connect to APPs, small programs, and public accounts. But these are just the entrance to the product, not the real user scenarios.

What is the scene?

Scenario is a big word. When making products, you have to mention it and understand it. The scene literally includes two words, one is field and the other is scene.

The field is time and space. It may be the products lying quietly on Taobao, the repeated advertisements on TV, the photo albums of micro-businesses in the circle of friends, etc. This is a field.

Scenery is an emotion that can cause user interaction. For example, recently I saw the news of a fight between a product manager and a developer, which can trigger you to complain and talk about the topic. This is Jing.

So, if you can get your users emotionally triggered and use the service you provide in a certain time and space, this is your opportunity.

Opportunity Judgment The last and most important point is to understand which industry the product you make belongs to, what is the current basic situation of this industry, and how will it develop in the future. Does your company or team have the ability to seize the opportunity in a limited time?

The industry situation here is like being an entity, the ability of a company or team is compared to a face, and meeting the needs of a certain point of users is compared to a point. Then, you can see that a point forms a line through linear time accumulation, and the lines converge again. It has become a face, but this face all survives in the body of this industry.

Therefore, if this body, that is to say, the industry as a whole is sinking, no matter how well that side or one point performs, you will not be able to survive for a long time. For example, in the news media industry, there are really fewer and fewer people reading newspapers. No matter how beautiful your newspaper is and how rich the content is, it won’t help.

3. My example

Take an example from your own experience to illustrate the judgment of opportunity.

What we are doing is a tool to assist parents in solving children’s behavioral habits. Let’s take a look at the points mentioned above:

1. What problem (point) does the product solve?

Assisting parents to improve their children’s behavior and habits, and solving parents’ anxiety about their children’s social survival, is a pain point.

2. Who is this problem being solved for? Got instant gratification (persona)?

Parents who want their children to develop good habits. It cannot be satisfied immediately, and the development of behavioral habits takes a period of time, and it requires the patience of the parents and the cooperation of the children to form.

3. How many people need to solve this problem (body)?

According to the 2016 census, the number of children is nearly 240 million, and if a family has 1.5 children, the number of parents is nearly 360 million.

4. How are people currently solving this problem (competitive analysis)?

4.1 Parents educate themselves, reward good performance, punish poor performance, and develop children’s habits according to parents’ goals.

4.2 Parents don’t have time to educate, and the older generation should educate them and develop their children’s behavior according to the goals of the older generation.

4.3 The older generation and their parents are educated at the same time. When the goals of the two are inconsistent, there will be differences of opinion, which will affect the children’s habits.

4.4 Children’s behavior training and training institutions. By referring to places and places, the training teachers will guide and train children to correct children’s behavior habits.

4.5 Small programs such as children’s time training camp and small punch-in, through the teacher’s arrangement and assigned tasks, children participating in the course line and punching in, parental interaction, ranking and other incentives to promote the development of children’s behavior habits.

5. Can my competitive solution win in the market (competitive advantage)?

Less likely:

5.1 Not providing enough resources and capabilities to support the operation of the system, low efficiency and slow iteration (surface).

5.2 The competition of similar competing products is fierce, the user experience is seriously homogenized, and there is no advantage (face).

5.3 Tool products, attached to WeChat, can easily be killed (face) by WeChat.

6. In what situations does the user need to trigger emotions (scenarios)?

6.1 Weeks in the mall, the child was crying because he wanted to buy a toy.

6.2 When I chatted at the neighbor’s house at night, I learned that the neighbor’s children’s test scores were always at the top of the year.

6.3 During the parent-teacher meeting on weekdays, the teacher named and criticized the child’s love of fighting and affecting other students’ learning.

6.4 When no guests came to the house during the week 4, the child’s rudeness and making trouble made myself very embarrassed.


After the above analysis, it is found that this demand exists from the point of view of user pain points and the entire industry. However, the development of children’s habits requires the persistence and cooperation of the family and the child for a period of time to complete. Not only can it be satisfied instantly through an auxiliary tool, but also our system ability cannot keep up with the efficiency, so we gave up later. .


Well, to sum up, before you make a product, you can spend time and energy to judge the opportunity of the product you make, which can save costs, improve efficiency, and avoid waste of resources. At the same time, after judging the opportunity, we must seize the key points, integrate limited resources, package our own value into products and deliver them to the world, and get returns.

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